February 13, 2023

Today's Topics

Good morning! Rihanna became the first pregnant performer ever at the Super Bowl halftime show, whistling through her hits in a 13-minute set. Today we're exploring:

  • Phone home: How many UFOs are reported every month?
  • Microsoft vs. Google: Bing's resurgence has Google worried, but will it last?
  • High spirits: It's boom time for liquor suppliers.

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Phone home

Yesterday, the US military shot down another high altitude object, this time over Lake Huron, marking the 4th time in less than 10 days that US fighter jets have shot something out of the sky.

It goes without saying that the events of the last few weeks have been unusual. Work is ongoing to recover as much debris as possible, but the latest reports suggest that the 3 objects shot down in the last few days were likely cylindrical objects that moved at wind speed, and were substantially smaller than the Chinese spy balloon which was the first object shot down on Feb 4th. However, the head of North American Aerospace Defense Command has yet to confirm whether these 3 other objects are “balloons” — as the US military remains unsure exactly how they stay aloft.

Bad time to be a UFO

The National UFO Reporting Center, which is a non-governmental non-profit organization, has been collating public reports of unidentified flying objects for decades, with ~500 typically reported in any given month. Many of these reports imply something extra-terrestrial, and some are hard to take seriously or credibly — particularly when you consider that every July 4th, when fireworks are often filling the sky, reports tend to skyrocket (thanks to The Economist for this original finding).

But it’s not just your conspiracy-loving Uncle who has seen a UFO. In a 2022 report released last month by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, some 247 UFO sightings were reported between March 2021 and August 2022. These were mostly by US Navy and Air Force personnel and, interestingly, of the roughly half that were identified as having any distinguishable characteristics, a large majority were described as “balloon or balloon-like entities”.

Microsoft vs. Google

Microsoft announcing the integration of ChatGPT into its search engine Bing, closely followed by Google unveiling its underwhelming AI chatbot Bard, has heralded a new era of competition in internet search after decades of quiet domination and not-much-innovation.

In the case of Google, where you’re so dominant that your company name becomes a verb, it’s easy to see why there’s been little incentive to change things. You don’t get to ~88% US market share (according to StatCounter) without a product that billions of people find useful.

Searching beyond silver

After years of being labeled "a joke" in the tech world, despite still making ~$8.5bn in revenue as we wrote about recently, Bing’s AI-powered revamp is looking like a masterstroke after years of battling for the silver medal in search with Yahoo!. Indeed, last Thursday Bing’s iPhone app had its best ever day of downloads, roughly a 9x increase on previous daily download figures.

The question is whether, for the first time ever, Bing will be able to make inroads into Google’s fortress. If Google’s own AI chatbot, Bard, does turn out to be a flop, Bing’s success will likely hinge on how much value we all place on what you could call “complex searches”. Using an AI-enabled search engine to help “plan an anniversary weekend” in a certain city, with complex search results for accommodation, travel and things to do might be where Bing can win. But if you just need to get to a login page for your emails, find out the Super Bowlscore or look up what time it is in Australia — what you might call “simple searches” — it’s not clear whether you'll need, or want, AI’s help.

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The Super Bowl's commercials are almost as famous as the football itself, and beer brands have long been the dominant force when it comes to the big game's advertising. However, new figures from the Distilled Spirits Council, a spirits-industry group, shows it is spirit-makers that have the latest bragging rights, as spirit supplier revenues surpassed beer for the first time last year.

High spirits

Indeed, liquor suppliers raked in $37.6bn in 2022, a 42% share of the total US alcohol market, helped by a 36% surge in sales for pre-mixed cocktails, along with rising demand for tequila and American whiskey. The sector has been on a 13-year growth spurt, gaining market share every year, taking it now past beer, which as recently as 2000 had 58% of the market.

America's love for a cold one isn't fading, but the latest data could be a sign of where things are heading as cocktail culture grows and bar-goers look for variety. Spirits may soon be a staple of those Super Bowl ads too.

More Data

• The most popular recipe in The New York Times was originally published in 1994 and since 2019 has been viewed more than 24 million times.

• The gap has narrowed between remote and onsite work, with 50% Americans now mostly in the office.

India has suddenly become the fifth largest country for lithium reserves after discovering 5.9 million tons of the mineral, which is crucial in the production of batteries for electric vehicles.

Lyft had a week to forget as the company's shares have fallen ~36% since their earnings last week, whilst rival Uber reported strong growth.

Hi-Viz

• Sudden urge to buy a car? If so, last night's commercials worked as the automotive industry was the biggest spender in this year's Super Bowl charting the top 10 spending industries.

• The winners of 2022’s travel photographer of the year.

Off the charts: With Valentine's Day just around the corner, here's a question for your loved one if the conversation runs dry: what are the top 3 ways that heterosexual couples meet in the modern age? [Answer below].

Answer here.

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