Good morning! The world’s tallest man and the world’s shortest woman reunited in California this week after 6 years — but their heights remained over 6ft apart. Today we explore:
All eyes on me
Investors will intensely scrutinize the results of Nvidia after market close today, as one of the most hotly-anticipated releases in recent history will reveal whether the chip giant can build on its stunning 2023 — with analysts expecting more than $20 billion in quarterly revenue (last year, the company did ~$6 billion in Q4).
In 2023, the company rode the wave of AI hype, with its Data Center division reporting quarter after quarter of growth as demand for its GPUs to train AI models skyrocketed. That took Nvidia to the coveted $1 trillion market cap club and, so far this year, the company — or at least the stock — has picked up right where it left off, with a buying frenzy sending it to more than $1.7 trillion, surpassing both Alphabet and Amazon within 24 hrs.
Mood setter
Nvidia has fast become the pacemaker for equity investors, with moves in Nvidia’s stock highly correlated with moves in the wider stock market: if Nvidia shares are having a good day, chances are the rest of the market is too. Nvidia’s stock has risen more than 2% on 29 days over the last 6 months; on 25 of those days — or 86% of the time — the S&P 500 has also risen.
Expectations for Nvidia are still seriously high, but, as our friends at Snacks put it, the easy days may be over, with rivals Intel and AMD announcing their own AI chips to compete with Nvidia in recent months.
Twilight zone
With markets rising, consumer confidence holding up, and a wave of companies enforcing return-to-office mandates, for many Americans, it seems like the perfect time to finally hang up their hats. Indeed, the US recorded 2.7 million more retirees in December than were predicted in models from economists at the St. Louis Federal Reserve, as reported by Bloomberg.
The recent upswing mirrors the ‘Great Retirement’ wave of 2020, when the pandemic saw the actual share of retirements swell and the labor force participation rate fall by 3.2% in the space of 2 months, the largest drop on record. However, rather than a deadly virus, what’s driving a significant portion of today’s retirees seems to be bolstered 401(k) balances.
Silver tsunami
With many already enjoying their golden years, a record 4.1 million people are set to celebrate their 65th birthday in the US in 2024 — as the mid-century baby boom ripples into a wave of present-day pensioners, dubbed the ‘silver tsunami’.
But, while there has been a spike in retirees, many in that age group aren’t looking to stop working any time soon. Indeed, over a longer time frame, the proportion of Americans aged 65+ who are employed has actually risen. A Pew Research study found that, 40 years ago, ~11% of Americans aged 65+ were working; today, it’s 19%... so there might still be a couple of years before the US hits peak retirement.
Anything you can do...
With all-time-high e-commerce sales, plans to expand its drone delivery service, and continued efforts to boost its burgeoning advertising business, Walmart is beginning to look a little more like Amazon with each passing day.
However, the brick-and-mortar behemoth still has some way to go on all 3 fronts: its global ad business, for example, was up some 28% to $3.4 billion last year, but remained just a fraction of its e-com competitor, which hauled in a staggering $14.7 billion in Q4 alone.
Ad-ditional income
Walmart execs will be hoping that the newly-announced $2.3 billion acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio will accelerate its ad offering. The retailer sees the deal as an opportunity to offer its customers “innovative television and in-home entertainment and media experiences”, while combining with its media arm, Walmart Connect, to help partner brands “realize greater impact” from their advertising spend.
Although Walmart only recognized $3.4 billion in advertising revenue last year (less than 1% of total sales), ads are an exciting proposition because the margins in the division are a completely different ballgame compared to its legacy retail business (chart). In fact, Walmart's CFO has predicted that the company’s future profitability might rely more on ads and services than its enormous retail empire.
• Point in time: Historians have found that the decimal point is actually 150 years older than previously thought, tracing back to an Italian mathematician in the 1440s.
• A study has found that Argentina's poverty rate hit 57% in January — the highest level in 20 years.
• Capital One is buying rival Discover Financial, uniting 2 of America’s biggest credit card companies in an all-stock tie-up worth more than $35bn.
• Sunday night's NBA All-Star game broke the record for most points scored in the league’s 73-year history: 397, up from the previous record of 374 set in 2017.
• NASA is seeking 4 volunteers to spend an entire year on a simulated Mars mission in a 3D-printed, dune-like habitat.
• Talking heat: A range of useful charts about climate change from reliable sources.
• Bulk on a budget: Mapping out protein density vs. cost per gram of protein for different foods.
Off the charts: Wildfire season is reportedly starting even earlier this year in what nation, which saw ~18 million hectares ravaged by record-breaking blazes in 2023? [Answer below].
